作者：拿督陈勇清准将（退休），原马来西亚海洋研究所所长；翻译：金秀楠，经士智库特约研究员。

原文首发于 MIMA Sea Views

链接：https://www.mima.gov.my/sea-views/accident-at-the-south-china-sea

原标题：南海意外事件

在特定海域通行或在水面下行驶有时会很困难，尤其是在这些海域没有做好海底调查或者海图不完整时，通行和操控都是有挑战的。南海南沙和西沙的大片海域海底都由珊瑚礁和海底火山覆盖，在地震后会出现海底上升和变动。没有按航向行驶的商船和军舰经常有报道搁浅或与海底物体相撞，这并不奇怪，就比如说2021年10月2日美海军“康涅狄格”号核潜艇就发生了一次事故。

研究机构和媒体提出不同的猜测和理论试图解释一艘复杂的核潜艇为何会与水下的物体相撞，声呐和其他导航系统都没有探测到并提供预警。不能使潜艇调转航向规避风险似乎是难以接受的。

由于南海资源丰富，周边六个国家与地区在此区域存在争议。据说此海域深处富含石油，天然气和贵重金属，同时南海周边国家在南海拥有丰富的渔业资源。这里是船只从印度洋通往太平洋的重要通道，80%的世界贸易由此通过。

海域空间管理

考虑到南海区域拥有潜艇的国家的数量，可以操控潜艇的区域是很有限的，因为海底存在过多障碍物。因此海域空间管理就成为一个问题，因为不是所有国家都自愿向同一个潜艇管理机构报告事项。相撞和事故就很可能发生，尤其当值更人员过于自大或警惕性降低时。 

波涛汹涌的洋流

大约在过去20年里，六个沿海国家或地区——中国、菲律宾、马来西亚、越南、文莱和台湾都提出对该海域的声索。中国同越南和菲律宾发生过小冲突，中国同马来西亚、马来西亚同菲律宾之间展开过激烈的外交交涉，各方都重申了各自的主张。除文莱外，其余五个国家和地区都在礁石和浅滩上建立了人工构筑物，并配备了各种军事设施，一些还在主张的岛屿上建造了机场来增加防御功能。所有这些动作吸引了全世界的关注目光，中国也被认为是挑衅者，因为他建造的设施比其他国家和地区加起来都要大，而且据说部署了复杂的武器和设施。

最近几年里，美国一直在挑战中国的主张，通过在中国主张的海域内开展航行自由活动。美国同时也鼓励由美国、日本、印度和澳大利亚组成的四边机制集团采取相似的活动，来测试或是无端造成紧张局面和应对。

究竟是否需要这种航行自由行动，中国或是任何声索国有没有否定或是阻碍这类军舰在争议海域通行呢？到目前为止，没有相关报道。军事活动的增加无疑会加重争议的紧张，从而使得现状变得充满动荡不安。

美国为什么要在南海部署“康涅狄格”号核潜艇，个中原因引发众多猜测。潜艇具有多种打击能力，并可以完成多种任务。2021年10月，有一起事故就发生在“康涅狄格”号核潜艇身上。报道中无从得知“康涅狄格”号与水下物体相撞的具体位置，这恐怕永远会是个迷。根据事故发生地点在海南附近的西沙海域，可以猜测很可能是在窥探中国军舰的秘密。

窃听海底电缆、安置窃听设备及其他侦察设备应该是众多任务中的一个。潜艇可以更新全部的情报情况。另外一种可能性是潜艇正伴随伊丽莎白号航母打击群，因为他们在8月到10月期间正好在该海域通行。无论潜艇是在执行什么任务，如果它是在航道范围内航行，都不会遇到事故发生。很可能的是它在正常航道外通行，而此时事故发生了。

据美国海军学院报道，船首被撞，这意味着事故发生时，航行速度大概在10到15节。这种损害使得潜艇不适宜在水下航行，因为它可能会导致破损或压舱水泄露。如果不幸发生了核泄漏，很有可能发生南海“切尔诺贝利”事件，这对南海海洋环境的破坏将是不可逆转的。

事故发生的深度也是没有公布的。媒体在过去几周提出了很多猜测，这些讨论也引得研究人员表达了对此的观点。

与此巧合的是，当潜艇被探测到在中国海域附近时，中国解放军空军据报道正在进行一系列飞行，包括巡航和电子战飞行器，其暗示潜艇受到了干扰，并且电子设备在事故发生时无法使用。如果事故会这样发生，除非潜艇正在潜望深度航行，所有天线都已升起，在被干扰的同时，影响了电子设备，但是应该会有应对措施，来解除被干扰的状态。这些模棱两可的解释还需要研究，因为没有进一步信息支撑，做出结论还为时过早。

据说中国水下技术在最近10年内得到了长足发展，无人水下航行器、水下侦听器、声呐浮标、声学仪器及其他侦察设备相继启用，用来对水下危害预警，对于侦听设备发出警报，在发现后都会有提示。

这起事件无疑加剧了在南海的军事活动。这些动荡不会消失，只会导致争端的进一步升级，这是这一区域的所有国家都不想见到的。

为了有效管控分歧，各方间增强信任和对话是十分必要的，应搁置分歧、增强互信，达成航行安全和保护环境的目标，而不是增加更多的怀疑。

附：英文原文

Navigating through or under the water can be very trying at times when the area that one is transiting or operating is not well surveyed and charted. A vast area in the Spratly and Paracel island chain in the South China Sea is covered with corals and seamounts which could grow or pop up after a seismic disturbance. It is not surprising that occasionally merchant vessels or military ships ventured off course and were reported to have grounded or collided with underwater objects like what occurred to the USS Connecticut on 2nd October 2021. 

Research institutions and the mass media put forward speculations and various theories as to how a sophisticated nuclear submarine could collide or hit an unidentified submerged object whilst operating in that area, and that an array of sonars and other navigating systems have failed to detect and provide the early warning required to steer the submarine away from such danger is not acceptable for an operational submarine. 

Due to the sea's riches here, this region has become an area of contention by six littoral states and entities. It is believed that there are vast areas of oil and gas deposits as well as precious metal in its depth, and it is also a rich fishing ground for these states bordering the South China Sea. It is the main sea route for a vessel sailing from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean, where over 80% of the world maritime trade passes through.

Water Space Management 

Looking at the number of countries within the South China Sea region that have submarines in their inventories, the likely areas to operate are very limited taking into account the inherent obstructions. Thus, water space management can be a problem when not all the countries subscribe to reporting to the same submarine operating authority. The likelihood of collision and other accidents could occur when the watchkeepers are complacent or letting their guards down.

The Turbulent Sea 

For the past two decades or so six littoral parties, (China, The Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and Taiwan) have staked claims over this body of waters. Skirmishes have occurred between China and Vietnam, and between China and The Philippines, while harsh diplomatic exchanges have taken place between China and Malaysia, and between Malaysia and The Philippines to reiterate their stake in the claim. All the six claimants besides Brunei have built man-made islands on the atolls and shallow waters and equipped them with all sorts of military gadgets, some with a runway to further enhance their defence on their claimed areas. All these activities have attracted attention around the world and China has been seen as an aggressor since its built-up is much more than the rest of the claimants and is believed to have in place sophisticated weapons and equipment. 

In the recent few years, the United States has been challenging China’s legitimacy to the claim by conducting freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) through China's claimed areas. The US has also encouraged the Quadrilateral (QUAD) group of the US, Japan, India and Australia partners to carry out such activities to test or probably to create an unwarranted response and anxiety. 

The question is, is there a need for such FONOPs? Has China or any of the claimant states denied or impeded any type of vessels from transiting through these disputed areas? To this date, none has been reported. The increase of naval activities will create unsettled anxiety, thus rendering the status quo situation to become a turbulent one. 

Why the US employed a submarine like USS Connecticut to the South China Sea and for what purpose is anyone’s guess. Submarine is a versatile force and could perform multiple roles. In October 2021, there was an incident involving the US submarine, the USS Connecticut. The exact location where the submarine collided with the submerged object was not made known in the report and would probably never be divulged. The likelihood of snooping operations to gather intelligence on the movement of Chinese military vessels is high if the incident occurred near the Paracel Islands or off Hainan.

Tapping submarine cables and planting listening devices and other intelligent gadgets could be one of the multiple tasks that could be performed by a submarine to update the complete intelligence picture. Another possibility could be the submarine was providing escort to the United Kingdom Carrier Strike Group led by HMS Queen Elizabeth, which had just passed through that area between August to October 2021. Whatever task that had been undertaken by the submarine, if it had operated within the confines of the gazetted sea lanes, it would not have run into this incident. The most likely situation was it operated "outside the normal" operational area when the incident occurred.

Looking at the damage as reported in the USNI news, the front portion, bow section was removed which indicated it might be transiting between 10-15 knots when the incident occurred. The impact rendered the vessel unsafe to transit underwater as it was probably experiencing some crack or leak in the ballast system. Luckily there was no damage to its nuclear reactor when the accident occurred. If that happened, it would have been a SCS “Chernobyl” moment which would be irreversible in terms of the damage to the maritime environment in the SCS.

The depth at which the accident occurred was not made known as well. Lots of possibilities were put forward over the last few weeks in the mass media and generated much discussion by researchers stating their arguments and views on the incident.

Coincidently at about this time, when the submarine was detected within the vicinity off the Chinese waters, the Chinese PLA Air Force was observed to be operating a variety of aircrafts including maritime patrol and electronic-warfare aircrafts, insinuating that the submarine was jammed and its electronics were rendered inoperable thus resulting in the collision. This might not happen unless the submarine was operating in periscope depth where its antennas were all raised and these were jammed which could have created some effect on its electronics, but some form of counter measure could have been performed to render the jamming ineffective. This ambiguity needs some scrutiny before conclusion could be made and this may not be achieved as the required information was not readily available.

It is believed that China's underwater technology has improved over the last decades. Unmanned underwater vessels, underwater listening devises, sonar buoys, sonic devices and other intelligent gadgets could have been developed and deployed to protect and provide early warning in its waters, signalling caution to those would-be snoopers that there will be a response when detected.

This incident in a way has hyped up military activities in the South China Sea. The turbulence will not subside but will result in further escalation of tension which all the countries in this region would not want it to happen.

To manage and mitigate tension, confidence building and dialogues among all parties concerned are necessary in order to set aside differences, to have mutual respect, and to achieve the common goal of enhancing safe navigation and protect the environment, instead of creating doubts and suspicions.

编辑：莫祖明，经士智库实习生